Bitcoin is currently trading at ~$115K on October 28, 2025, staying above the BTC price today level of ~$114K. Heading into the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, the market is widely expecting a 25-basis-point interest rate cut to a range of 4.00% – 4.25%, potentially having a significant impact on Bitcoin’s price.
With a high of $115,774 and a low of $113,585, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap has remained relatively stable as the wider market has pulled back, with major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Binance Coin (BNB) leading the decline. ETH dropped 2.6% to $4,115, while SOL and BNB both fell by about 2%. On a weekly basis, however, the crypto market has rebounded strongly, with Bitcoin trading 5.8% higher.
Rising Open Interest Signals Increased Leverage and Heightened Risk
The rapid growth of Bitcoin futures open interest in Bitcoin derivatives is one of the leading factors likely to drive Bitcoin price movement and increase market volatility. Bitcoin open interest (OI) is the total amount of outstanding futures or options contracts for Bitcoin that are traded in the market. The value of OI is the amount of money currently being traded on or invested in Bitcoin derivatives.
CoinGlass Bitcoin futures data shows Bitcoin open interest increased, crossing above $32 billion this week, reconfirming that fresh leverage is entering the Bitcoin market trends. While this could push Bitcoin price above $112K, analysts believe the risk of liquidation also increases in the event of a drop below the $110K level.
Bitcoin Futures Open Interest. Source: CoinGlass
Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, has stated:
Open interest climbing from $25 billion to nearly $30 billion reflects fresh leverage entering the market, a double-edged sword that could amplify upside momentum above $112K but heighten liquidation risks below $110K.
This move is similar to how the market acted earlier this month. Bitcoin consistently found resistance between $117,000 and $120,000, even with renewed leverage flows in the market pushing the price higher. The massive buildup in leverage is likely to be one of the key factors that will determine Bitcoin’s price action. A breakout above these resistance levels could see a new rally, while a fall below these levels could trigger liquidations and create more volatility in the market.
One key difference is that market fear is not at the same level as during the October sell-off, which saw the liquidations run up to $19 billion. According to CoinGlass, open interest and funding rates across all major exchanges are staying elevated yet stable for now. It shows that traders are not as extended as they head into the policy week.
What Traders Expect from the Federal Reserve’s Policy Shift
The Federal Reserve rate cut is expected as the FOMC meeting takes place on October 28-29, with the market pricing in a 25 basis point reduction, which could influence the impact of the Fed rate decision on Bitcoin. If that comes through, it would take the federal funds rate to 4.00%–4.25%, marking a dovish pivot for the Fed even as inflation remains above its target. Bitget’s Zhang has also added:
Powell is likely to emphasize a data-dependent approach while signaling a controlled liquidity expansion. That balance between easing and caution is what’s stabilizing Treasury demand and lifting sentiment across equities and crypto.
Tomorrow will be the Fed’s first meeting since the partial government shutdown, due to disagreements between Republicans and Democrats over funding for healthcare insurance. Market participants will be curious to see how the Fed responds to the economic uncertainty surrounding a potential government shutdown, as it disrupts the flow of key economic data to markets. The Fed, meanwhile, may be forced to substitute official data for private indicators, such as ADP employment numbers.
Technical Analysis of Bitcoin Price: Resistance and Support Levels
As of October 28, 2025, the Bitcoin price today is around $115K with a 24-hour trading volume of $52,811,436,570.64 USD. The potential short-term Bitcoin price predictions point to resistance between $117,000 and $120,000. If BTC can hold above this level, it could test further Bitcoin support and resistance levels near $125,000. Hence, a sustained Bitcoin price breakout could pave the way for new BTC all-time highs. On the other hand, if the BTC price falls below $110,000, it could open the door for more volatility and further downward pressure.
BTC/USD 24-Hour Chart. Source: CoinMarketCap
BTC saw a 5.8% price surge over the last seven days, defying the selloff experienced by broader altcoins this week. Analysts are attributing the divergence in performance to BTC’s strong capital consolidation over the past few weeks of extreme volatility. In the long term, Bitcoin is bullish as it remains above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. However, as leverage continues to increase, there is a risk of significant crypto market volatility if liquidation triggers are reached.
Capital Consolidation Amid Altcoin Pullback
This week, Bitcoin has begun to outperform altcoins as part of a capital consolidation phase. Bitcoin successfully defended its gains, but altcoins saw a pullback. XRP traded at just over $2.65, and SOL was near $202, with Solana’s SOL leading the decline. DOGE was down 3%, while TRX recorded the largest drop among the top 10 tokens, declining 1.4% in 24 hours.
Many analysts believe that the recent Bitcoin flight to safety is driven by investors in Bitcoin, seeking refuge from riskier assets, often referred to as a digital gold investment, with Bitcoin capital consolidation leading the way. According to FXPro data, total crypto market capitalization reached $3.92 trillion, recovering to the 50-day moving average (MA), staying above the 200-day MA of $3.51 trillion at the start of last week.
Total Crypto Market Cap. Source: FxPro X
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Drop as Long-Term Holders Take Profits, Sparking Market Shifts
In the week we passed, net inflows into spot BTC ETFs fell to $446.4 million, the lowest level in seven weeks, according to data from SoSoValue. Since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, total inflows have reached $61.54 billion. Weekly net outflows from spot ETH ETFs also decreased to $243.9 million, cutting the cumulative net inflow since the launch of ETH ETFs in July 2024 to $14.35 billion.
Data from OnChainSchool shows that the volume of bitcoins that have been inactive for more than seven years and have been moved since the beginning of the year has reached a historic high. On the other hand, long-term BTC holders continue to take profits by actively selling coins.
Owners of 100-1,000 BTC, also known as Dolphins, hold the largest share of all bitcoins, around 26%. Their activity is “becoming a major market driver in the late phase of the bull market,” CryptoQuant notes. According to CryptoQuant, ETFs, corporations, and other large holders are also referred to as dolphins.
Altcoins could have a capitalization of $800 billion more by the end of the year if it weren’t for the BTC ETFs. Bitcoin and BTC ETFs are seeing growing interest, which could lead to a further sharp decline in the altcoin market, 10x Research highlighted.
The Next Big Move for Bitcoin: Waiting for the Fed’s Decision
As the crypto market continues to process the implications of the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, traders are shifting from fear to patience. The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 42, and the broader crypto market is showing signs of consolidation, with Bitcoin remaining at the forefront of this trend. The catalyst for the next major Bitcoin price movement may rely less on policy surprises and more on how traders manage the leverage they have accumulated recently. As long as Bitcoin remains above key support levels, the outlook remains positive; however, traders should be cautious about the risks of increased leverage and potential liquidation.
Over the next few days, Bitcoin’s movement through key resistance levels, specifically between $117,000 and $120,000, will likely determine if it has enough momentum to test new highs or if it will face a correction. As the market expects the Fed’s next move on Wednesday, both traditional and crypto traders will be closely watching Bitcoin to see its next directional move. Many traders and analysts will be on the lookout for the next sign of volatility as the Fed meeting concludes and fresh economic data is released.
